DEMAND FORECASTING AND PERFORMANCE OF KENYA MEDICAL SUPPLIES AUTHORITY

Paul Ereng Longilae, Dr. Elizabeth Wachiuri

Abstract


The Kenya Medical Supplies Authority (KEMSA) plays a pivotal role in the healthcare system of Kenya by ensuring the timely and efficient supply of medical commodities to public health facilities across the country. In recent years, KEMSA has faced significant challenges that have impacted its performance and operational efficiency. Statistics from various reports underscore these challenges. For instance, a 2023 audit report by the Auditor General of Kenya highlighted irregularities in procurement processes at KEMSA, leading to inefficiencies and delays in supply delivery. The report also noted instances of overpricing and mismanagement of resources, which have strained KEMSA's financial sustainability and eroded public trust in its operations. The general objective of the study was to establish the influence of demand forecasting on performance of Kenya medical supplies authority. Specifically, the study sought to establish the effect of past demand on performance of Kenya medical supplies authority and to determine the effect of trend projection on performance of Kenya medical supplies authority. This study adopted a descriptive research design. The unit of analysis in this study was Kenya medical supplies authority. According to Auditor general’s report (2023), KEMSA has a total of 912 employees. The study targeted employees in the logistics and procurement departments. The unit of observation was therefore 80 employees working in logistics and procurement departments in KEMSA. The study adopted a census and rules out application of any specific sampling technique. The study used a census since the population of 80 is small and the study aims to reach all the respondents. The study conducted a pilot test on 10% of the sample size to test the validity and reliability of the data collection instrument. This study used primary data collected using a semi- structured questionnaire. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyze the data. Descriptive and inferential statistics was computed and findings presented in tables and figures. The study concludes that past demand has a positive and significant effect on performance of Kenya medical supplies authority. The study also concludes that trend projection has a positive and significant effect on performance of Kenya medical supplies authority. Based on the findings, the study recommends that the management of Kenya medical supplies authority in Kenya should develop a robust demand forecasting system that leverages historical demand data.

Key Words: Demand Forecasting, Past Demand, Trend Projection, Performance of Kenya Medical Supplies Authority


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References


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